18th Assenagon Fund Forum: Where Global Upheaval Creates New Opportunities for Investors

• NATO expert shows that views of the future differ more widely around the world than a European perspective might suggest
• Geopolitical rivalry is reshaping the global economy: How flexible asset allocation can help investors respond
• The AI investment boom is shifting the weights in global bond indices: Active management matters more than ever

How should investors position their portfolios when views of the future are diverging around the world, two rival power blocs are emerging, and the financing needs of major technology companies are changing the composition of bond indices? NATO expert Dr Florence Gaub and economist Prof Dr Maurice Pedergnana explored these questions alongside Assenagon’s investment experts at the 18th Assenagon Fund Forum in Munich last week.

The Future Is Not Set in Stone 

How people view the future depends greatly on where and how they live, Dr Florence Gaub, Director of Research at the NATO Defense College in Rome, explained in her presentation. In wealthy countries, 59% of young people expect to be worse off than their parents. In poorer countries, 69% expect a better life. And in Indonesia, 82% of the young people surveyed believe the world as a whole will change for the better. Those with much to lose are more likely to see change as a threat; those who see opportunities for improvement tend to be more optimistic. Knowledge and education also make a difference: The more people know about the progress humanity has already made, the more positively they view the future.

Gaub’s central message was: "The future is not a predetermined fate. It is a space of possibilities and a profoundly democratic process in which we can all participate. It depends on the choices we make."

Assenagon co-founder Hans Günther Bonk echoed this call for active optimism in his welcome address to around 100 invited guests.

Global Perspectives: Recognising Risks, Preserving Flexibility

Prof Dr Maurice Pedergnana, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Zugerberg Finanz AG, and Thomas Romig, Managing Director and CIO Multi Asset at Assenagon, examined the consequences of the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US. The resulting fragmentation of the world into two power blocs will shape the global economy for decades, they argued. Europe’s challenge is to reduce its strategic dependencies while continuing to work with both sides. To achieve this, it must cut red tape, make full use of its innovative potential and strengthen financial literacy. “European households hold billions of euros in cash and low-interest bank deposits. Invested in capital markets, these funds could provide a powerful source of liquidity,” Prof Pedergnana said.

Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices and higher inflation expectations, the speakers saw more opportunities than risks for financial markets. “Periods of disruption also create compelling opportunities for investors,” Romig said. For portfolios, the key is to spread risk across asset classes, regions and investment themes, while actively adjusting allocations as market conditions change. Romig illustrated this approach using Assenagon’s multiple award-winning Multi Asset fund range. 

As Big Tech Takes on Debt, Global Bond Indices Change

Robert Van Kleeck, Head of Credit Portfolio Management at Assenagon, focused on how the AI investment boom is being financed through bond markets. US hyperscalers have issued almost USD 400 billion in bonds over the past two years, and their need for capital shows little sign of easing. Market estimates put investment through 2029 at around USD 5.5 trillion, pointing to substantial shifts in index weights.

This has major implications for investors because bond indices weight issuers according to their outstanding debt. As a company borrows more, its index weight automatically rises. “An index weights issuers by how much they owe. In our Assenagon Credit funds, we instead select investments based on their attractiveness and risk, using our proprietary rating model,” Van Kleeck said, summing up Assenagon’s active approach beyond index mechanics.

Munich, 29 September 2026